Chinese politics, 2004
The state of matters at present

John Kusumi

It also appears that the Chinese democracy movement has a preference for Hu Jintao, while the U.S. White House under President George W. Bush has been gracing Jiang Zemin with favors. Prior to Jiang's leaving the presidency of China, Bush met with him on several occasions, including one at Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas. More recently, Bush has taken to calling Hu on matters of foreign policy, so we cannot say definitively that Washington favors Jiang in the power struggle.

What is certain is that Jiang Zemin is no Deng Xiaoping, and that if the opportunity presents itself, Hu should, and likely will, accept Jiang's resignation. The New York Times recently reported that Jiang offered to resign, but pessimists note that in the world of Chinese leadership, an offer to resign is just as likely a ploy or a gambit, and may end by shoring up the support for the leader in question. Pessimists expect Jiang Zemin to stay until the next full party congress in 2007.

Also on Wednesday of this week, Hu Jinato ruled out the thought of China reforming to embrace democracy. In other words, going into this meeting, he threw cold water once again onto the hopes of the Chinese democracy movement.

Meanwhile this week, a two paragraph message circulated in the Chinese democracy movement:

We may start to draw a draft, title may be "Chinese People Unity Proclamation: Love, Peace, and Freedom", in order to build the China Union and prepare for the draft of China Union Constitution, before China falling apart. Sooner or later, the central will not hold, the Communist dictatorship will loss power in China, since they do not have strong support from people, just like the tower will fall down, if it do not stand on strong base. We have to prevent China to separate to many nations and fight to each other, so we have to set the same goal that all people can accept, and reach the consensus to avoid debates and disputes. We have to build the spirit that can unite the diversities together. The Unity Proclamation will play the role to unite us together. We have to draw this proclamation as soon as possible before it is too late, before China dictatorship government falling down and our country separating to parts. We hope Dr. Yang Jian Li can be released as soon as possible, he might be one of the most suitable persons for drawing the Unity Proclamation. Then the people for Constitution by participation in the process: discussion, knowing, informing, training, education, talking about, seeing, hearing or caring, etc, final, approving or consent. Unity in varieties or diversities will be the principle for future China.

Taiwan can be independent, but still remains part of China Union, just like England is independent, but still is part of Europe Union. Tibet can be independent, but still stay one part of China Union, just like California is independent, but still belong to one part of United States. Taiwan and Mainland China are one body, even Taiwan and China are separated by Taiwan Strait. Since we are one body, there should be no war between Taiwan and China. The war will cause tremendous damage to two sides, China and Taiwan. We have to stop the war. We have to stop China and Taiwan putting much money on weapons and preparing war. Our children have to live in peace and love each other as brothers and sisters. Let's work together for peace, we will save China and Taiwan. The freedom and Democracy certainly will come as long as peace comes. JianLi, Christian, and their family certainly will be together and happy, all love couples will be happy as long as peace preserved.

For purposes of this article, the identity of the author is not important. The rough English of this message is not edited into good form, but is good enough to reveal the concerns of today's Chinese democracy movement, and at least one direction of thinking about where the situation might go.

Analysis of the message

The message contains three elements: fears, hopes, and ideas. It may be that the fears of this message also contain the seeds of hope. The author clearly has fears of China falling apart, the center not holding, and expectation that the CCP's dictatorship will lose power, whereupon the author fears that China will separate into many nations at war between them. The fear is clearly about the "government falling down and our country separating to parts." And especially, the writer seems to be most fearful about a possible war of mainland China versus Taiwan, saying, "there should be no war between Taiwan and China. The war will cause tremendous damage to two sides, China and Taiwan."

The writer is frightened by the specter of war, and the threat has become palpable, so much so that the writer felt prompted to shake the tree of the Chinese pro-democracy movement.

The message also contains hopes of unity, love, peace, and freedom. Very clearly, the hope is to create a structure that is strong enough to prevent the separation of China, or splitting of the motherland. The hope is to have a common goal that is widely acceptable, and to achieve some amount of consensus. The hope, as stated, is to "build the spirit that can unite the diversities together....Unity in varieties or diversities will be the principle for future China." The writer states hopefully, "Taiwan and Mainland China are one body, even [though] Taiwan and China are separated by Taiwan Strait....We have to stop the war. We have to stop China and Taiwan putting much money on weapons and preparing war. Our children have to live in peace and love each other as brothers and sisters." While the writer seems to value freedom and democracy as well as love and happiness, it is clear from this message that all of this hinges on one thing above all: peace. At least to this reader, "working together for peace" seems to come across as the most urgent imperative in this message.

The message also contains ideas that may be actionable next steps for the pro-democracy movement. The author is envisioning a Unity Proclamation and a drafting of a Constitution, leading to a China Union that might be analogous to the European Union. He also has suggestions about Taiwan policy and Tibet policy, but notably, this message is silent about East Turkestan policy and Mongolia policy.

My view of this

The message is hopeful and optimistic, if not wishful and naiive. It is possible to look and find some troubles with this message; the relationship of California to the U.S. is not the same as that of England to the EU. Some Tibetans would be more disposed towards the latter, and would view the former as no different than the status quo. As noted, this message gives no guidance about East Turkestan or Mongolia.

On the other hand, it is also possible to read this message for the constructive things that it suggests. The writer correctly fears war, and would prefer peace and stability. Any future government of China should, itself, prefer and require peace and stability. The writer's urgings and blandishments for unity are laudable, although activists for (e.g.) Tibet and East Turkestan remain only loosely coupled with the mainland pro-democracy movement. Those activists also want Chinese democracy, but it is not known whether they would commit their regions to a future Union or Confederacy with a projected future -- democratic -- China.

Within the mainland movement, unity is the holy grail. Many dissidents have strived mightily for the objective of unity in the movement, but in fifteen years recently, it has proven to be fleeting or elusive. OCDC and FCM have become the top two "brand names." Each is an umbrella group, fighting for Chinese democracy. (Other brand names remain good, but often seem to specialize in one area, or do not have "top of mind awareness" that has been achieved -- in English -- by OCDC and FCM.)

Unity, and the drafting of a Constitution, are good ideas for the mainland movement. East Turkestan activists have reached the point of forming a government-in-exile. Tibetans already have a government-in-exile. The time is upon us for the mainland movement to arrive at the same stage of development. Mechanical details, such as the form of union, confederacy, Taiwan policy, and Tibet policy, are of a secondary priority. What is necessary first is for the mainland dissident leadership to convene. When they are ready to work as a deliberative body, only then can they take up the matters, questions, and issues that are raised in the nature of this work.

It is the job of a Constitution to render, present, and reflect a workable solution for the issues that it faces. It is ironic that the writer sent this message to the support group for Dr. Yang Jianli. Dr. Yang is the author of a suggestion draft Constitution, one of three such drafts that the pro-democracy movement has, sitting on a shelf. The democracy movement should pick one of those drafts, and get on with the course of history.

I repeat that it is the job of a Constitution to be a workable solution. When dissidents finally sit down to convene about this, a key first decision is to choose which of the drafts to use as a starting point and basis for further discussion. I hope that dissidents will mark one of the choices like so--

[ ] Republic of China (1946, "Double ten" draft)
[ ] Federal Republic of China (Dr. Yang Jianli's draft)
[ ] Free Republic of China (Draft as in the Road Map to Democracy)

It is also possible to start from a blank piece of paper, perhaps to create a "China Union Constitution," that was the suggestion of the message of this week, as analyzed above. It does seem that this week's writer was suggesting a fourth alternative. However, since three choices already sit on a shelf gathering dust -- it seems to me, that the movement could have its Constitution pretty quickly, if only the decision is taken.

To take such a decision would in fact be better for peace and stability. I therefore value this week's message, and I thank the writer for jogging the other decision makers of the Chinese pro-democracy movement.

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Source: "CSN".